The Land of Powdered Milk : Why Africa Keeps Paying Europe and New Zealand to Feed Its Own People

Africa has cows. Tens of millions of them. The continent holds some of the world's largest livestock populations, stretching from the highlands of Ethiopia and the great plains of Tanzania to the pastoral belts of Nigeria's north and the dairy farms of Kenya's rift valley. And yet every year, Africa spends billions of dollars importing powdered milk — a product it has every natural capacity to produce itself — from factories in the Netherlands, New Zealand, France, and Ireland.

This is not a minor inefficiency. It is one of the most striking structural failures in African agribusiness, and understanding why it exists — and what it would take to reverse it — is essential reading for anyone serious about the future of food on the continent.

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## The Scale of the Import Dependency

The numbers are stark. Africa imported 507,000 tons of whole powdered milk in 2024, with the continental market valued at $3.2 billion. [IndexBox](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/whole-powdered-milk-africa-market-overview-2024-1/) Add skim milk powder, and skim powdered milk imports reached a further 426,000 tons in the same year, with the skim market alone valued at $1.5 billion. [IndexBox](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/skim-powdered-milk-africa-market-overview-2024-6/) Combined, Africa is importing well over 900,000 tons of powdered milk annually, spending upwards of $4 billion to do so — and that figure is climbing.

Total dairy consumption in Africa is projected to grow faster than production, leading to a sustained increase in dairy imports. As liquid milk is expensive to trade due to its high volume-to-value ratio, additional demand growth is expected to be met by milk powders — where water is added for final consumption or further processing. [OECD](https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_3eb15914/full-report/dairy-and-dairy-products_1dd2e5a6.html) In other words, the structural dependence on powder is not a temporary phase. It is the default delivery mechanism for dairy nutrition across the continent.

In West Africa, fat-filled milk powder accounts for about two-thirds of dairy imports and nearly 70% of dairy consumption in most capitals. [Ecofin Agency](https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/0211-50061-africas-dairy-equation-more-milk-but-more-imports-too) West Africans are deeply dependent on powdered and condensed milk for their dairy needs. Unlike East Africa, where fresh milk is consumed, the idea of fresh milk consumption is alien in many parts of West Africa. The hotter, more humid climate does not allow for the safe handling and transport of fresh milk. [Pan African Review](https://panafricanreview.com/small-scale-production-of-dry-and-condensed-milk-in-east-africas-for-export-to-west-africa-exploring-potentials-and-strategies/) Climate, infrastructure, and consumer habit have combined to lock in a pattern of powder dependency that now spans generations.

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## Why the Demand Is So High

Africa's powdered milk crisis has three interlocking drivers: demographics, diet, and distribution failure.

Population growth is the blunt force behind demand. The continent adds tens of millions of consumers every year. Urbanisation accelerates dietary transition — as people move from rural smallholder settings into cities, they shift away from informal fresh milk sourced from a neighbour's cow to packaged, shelf-stable dairy products purchased in a market. Africans consume ready-to-eat or packaged food in rising proportions, and dairy products are heavily consumed across the continent. [Fieldassist](https://fieldassist.com/blog/africa-cpg-market-challenges-trends-opportunites/)

At the same time, domestic production systems have simply not kept pace. Africa's dairy industry faces several challenges including low productivity per cow, fluctuating milk production, inconsistent milk quality, high cost of production, inefficiencies along the value chain, and a large informal sector. [Issuu](https://issuu.com/foodworldmedia/docs/fba_issue_49/s/14202330) The average African dairy cow produces a fraction of what a European Holstein yields — local breeds in Nigeria, for instance, produce as little as 2 to 3 litres per day compared to European breeds that deliver 30 to 40 litres.

And then there is the processing gap. Even where raw milk exists, the infrastructure to convert it into shelf-stable products — pasteurisers, spray driers, UHT lines, powder packaging systems — is almost entirely absent at the scale required. Processing and cold-chain distribution infrastructure is also poorly developed, requiring huge investment that can only be sourced externally in most cases. [DairyReporter](https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2025/08/04/investment-surges-as-africas-dairy-industry-set-to-hit-14bn/) The result is a continent that produces raw milk it cannot fully process, while paying premiums to import the processed equivalent.

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## Who Is Importing the Most

The import map is dominated by North Africa, but the fastest growth is in sub-Saharan Africa's most populous nations.

Algeria is the largest consumer of whole powdered milk in Africa at approximately 250,000 tons — roughly 48% of total continental volume — with the market valued at $989 million. [IndexBox](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/whole-powdered-milk-africa-market-overview-2024-1/) Algeria ranks as the world's second-largest milk powder importer after China. [Ecofin Agency](https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/0211-50061-africas-dairy-equation-more-milk-but-more-imports-too) It is followed by Egypt at 10%, Nigeria at 7.5% to 9%, Libya at 8%, Morocco at 6.5%, and Senegal at 5%.

Ghana imported milk worth $127 million in 2021, a 30% increase over 2020's $97 million. Domestic production of fresh milk in Ghana meets less than 20% of annual demand. [Pan African Review](https://panafricanreview.com/small-scale-production-of-dry-and-condensed-milk-in-east-africas-for-export-to-west-africa-exploring-potentials-and-strategies/) Côte d'Ivoire imported $212 million worth of milk in 2021, mostly from the Netherlands, France, Ireland, Poland, New Zealand, and Malaysia. [Pan African Review](https://panafricanreview.com/small-scale-production-of-dry-and-condensed-milk-in-east-africas-for-export-to-west-africa-exploring-potentials-and-strategies/) In Senegal, imported milk and dairy products reached 211.6 million litres and consisted mainly of milk powder at 93% of the total. [Pan African Review](https://panafricanreview.com/small-scale-production-of-dry-and-condensed-milk-in-east-africas-for-export-to-west-africa-exploring-potentials-and-strategies/)

Nigeria tells its own cautionary tale. When Nigeria attempted to ban milk imports to force domestic production, prices skyrocketed, resulting in severe shortfall, hardship, and malnutrition. By 2020, the government was forced to lift the ban, and by March 2024, all restrictions were lifted and any registered party could source foreign exchange for the importation of milk. [Pan African Review](https://panafricanreview.com/small-scale-production-of-dry-and-condensed-milk-in-east-africas-for-export-to-west-africa-exploring-potentials-and-strategies/) The lesson was painful: you cannot mandate a dairy processing industry into existence without first building the infrastructure.

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## Where the Powder Comes From

New Zealand is Africa's top dairy supplier with exports exceeding $1 billion, ahead of the Netherlands, France, Ireland, and Germany. [Ecofin Agency](https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/0211-50061-africas-dairy-equation-more-milk-but-more-imports-too) Europe supplies over 55% of worldwide milk exports by value, with New Zealand leading Oceania's contribution at 24.4%. [Worlds Top Exports](https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-milk-exporting-countries/)

In the medium term, the European Union, the United States, and New Zealand will continue to account for approximately 65% of cheese exports, 70% of whole milk powder exports, and 79% of skimmed milk powder exports globally. [Salon-fromage](https://www.salon-fromage.com/en/news/promising-prospects-for-dairy-products-in-africa-and-the-indian-subcontinent) Africa, despite its herd sizes and agricultural land, contributes just 0.7% of global milk exports. [Worlds Top Exports](https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-milk-exporting-countries/) That figure alone captures the scale of the continent's underperformance in dairy processing.

The pricing disparity reveals another dimension of the problem. Nigeria pays the highest import price among African buyers at $5,934 per ton, while Burkina Faso pays as little as $1,788 per ton. [IndexBox](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/whole-powdered-milk-africa-market-overview-2024-1/) Higher-income markets pay premium prices for quality and branding — money that flows directly to European and Oceanian processors rather than to African farmers or manufacturers.

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## Which African Countries Are Leading Production

East Africa is where the continent's dairy potential is most advanced. East Africa accounts for 48% of Africa's total milk production in 2023 with 25.4 million tons, recording the fastest growth over the past decade at 26% between 2013 and 2023. Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania, and South Sudan are the main producers, while Uganda has emerged as a major exporter of milk powder. [Ecofin Agency](https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/0211-50061-africas-dairy-equation-more-milk-but-more-imports-too)

The leading powdered milk producers in Africa in 2024 were South Africa, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe, together accounting for 64% of continental production. Morocco has shown the fastest growth rate, with a CAGR of 38.4% in powdered milk production over the past decade. [IndexBox](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/whole-powdered-milk-africa-market-overview-2024-1/)

Kenya stands out as a model. Meru Central Dairy Cooperative has grown production from 10,000 litres per day to nearly 700,000 litres, achieving ISO 22,000 certification and positioning itself for export. Kenya produced nearly 5.76 billion litres of milk in 2023. [FW Africa](https://dairybusinessmea.com/2026/04/25/africas-dairy-industry-at-a-turning-point-innovation-integration-and-food-security-into-the-future/) Rwanda, though small in absolute volume, is investing deliberately. Rwanda's political stability, strong government support, and active private sector make it one of the continent's most promising environments for cold chain and dairy investment. [Alg-global](https://www.alg-global.com/blog/logistics/exploring-potential-and-overcoming-challenges-cold-chain-africa)

South Africa remains the most advanced processing economy, but its exports flow south — to Lesotho, Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia — rather than north and west where the volume demand is concentrated. South Africa's milk powder exports are forecast to increase by 20% in 2025 as a result of an increase in demand for milk powder in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. [USDA](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=The+South+African+Dairy+Industry_Pretoria_South+Africa+-+Republic+of_SF2025-0005.pdf)

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## The Challenges Blocking Scale-Up

Despite the clear demand signal and available raw material, several structural barriers have kept African powdered milk production suppressed for decades.

**Cold chain absence.** Dairy losses in East Africa's dairy-rich highlands average 15 to 20% across smallholder supply chains due to the absence of farm-gate pre-cooling infrastructure. [BOH Infrastructure](https://boh-infra.com/cold-chain-logistics-perishable-markets-africa/) In Malawi, before processors entered the market, up to 70% of milk in some rural regions was wasted due to lack of cold chain access. [FW Africa](https://dairybusinessmea.com/2026/04/25/africas-dairy-industry-at-a-turning-point-innovation-integration-and-food-security-into-the-future/) Milk that spoils before it reaches a processor cannot become powder.

**Processing infrastructure deficit.** Spray drying — the core technology for converting liquid milk into powder — requires capital investment in the tens of millions of dollars per facility. This is beyond the reach of most African agribusinesses without DFI or development bank support. Standard Bank notes that the African dairy sector cold chain is an area for investment and that processing finance is generally structured through short-term working capital solutions and asset finance. [DairyReporter](https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2025/08/04/investment-surges-as-africas-dairy-industry-set-to-hit-14bn/)

**Low cow productivity.** In Nigeria, Arla Foods has partnered with VikingGenetics to introduce sexed semen from Nordic cattle breeds capable of producing up to 40 litres per day — 18 to 25 times more than local breeds. [Ecofin Agency](https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/0211-50061-africas-dairy-equation-more-milk-but-more-imports-too) This genetic gap is being addressed, but it takes years to transform a national herd.

**The informal sector dominance.** Across most of sub-Saharan Africa, over 80% of raw milk never enters the formal processing chain. It is consumed at household level, sold informally, or spoiled. A formal powder industry requires formal raw milk aggregation at scale — which in turn requires collection infrastructure, cooling tanks, quality testing, and farmer payment systems.

**Energy unreliability.** Dairy processing and cold chain both require consistent electricity. Standard Bank highlights the need for decentralisation of power grids to support cooling at collection centres as a prerequisite for dairy sector expansion. [Gcca](https://www.gcca.org/magazine-article/the-cold-chain-in-africa/)

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## The Intra-Africa Trade Opportunity

The most compelling case for Africa's powdered milk industry is not simply import substitution. It is the untapped arbitrage between East Africa's milk surplus and West Africa's powder deficit — two regions within the same continent, separated by no more than a few thousand kilometres and a processing plant.

East Africa, with its huge cattle production, often reports large amounts of milk spoilage and wastage, while many West African countries — Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire — continue to import dry and condensed milk in massive quantities, mostly from Europe. There is an urgent need for concerted efforts to build a critical mass of East African production of dry and condensed milk for export to the huge West African market. [Pan African Review](https://panafricanreview.com/small-scale-production-of-dry-and-condensed-milk-in-east-africas-for-export-to-west-africa-exploring-potentials-and-strategies/)

This is not theoretical. The demand is real, the raw material exists, the trade corridors are being formalised through AfCFTA, and the price differential between European imports and what an African processor could offer — given lower logistics costs and proximity — is potentially very significant. The AfCFTA aims to create a single market for goods and services across 54 African countries, with the potential to boost intra-African trade by 52%. [Researchdesk](https://researchdesk.consulting/investable-value-chains-in-africas-agribusiness-sector-for-2025/)

The African skim powdered milk market alone is forecast to expand from 461,000 tons to 549,000 tons valued at $2.1 billion by 2035, with Kenya showing the fastest import growth trajectory of any country on the continent. [IndexBox](https://www.indexbox.io/blog/skim-powdered-milk-africa-market-overview-2024-6/) Every ton of that projected growth is currently slated to be filled by a European or Oceanian supplier. An African processor entering this market in the next three to five years would not be competing against incumbent African producers — they would be competing against a 15,000-kilometre supply chain.

The Middle East and Africa dairy market, valued at $23.17 billion in 2025, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% to reach $39.58 billion by 2035. [Expert Market Research](https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/dairy-market-in-middle-east-and-africa) Even capturing a modest share of that growth through intra-African powder trade would represent a multi-billion dollar value-creation opportunity.

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## The Path Forward

The gap is not a mystery. It is a solvable infrastructure and capital allocation problem. The milk exists. The demand exists. The trade routes are being formalised. What is missing is the processing infrastructure that sits between the cow and the can — and the investment models to fund it.

African dairy sector investment has been growing, with Egyptian dairy group Beyti announcing $123 million into a 100,000-ton-per-year cheese facility, while South Africa has seen investment deals from Milco SA, Schreiber Foods, and EXEO Capital. [DairyReporter](https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2025/08/04/investment-surges-as-africas-dairy-industry-set-to-hit-14bn/) These are signals that the private sector is beginning to recognise the opportunity.

The continent that feeds the world's appetite for coffee, cocoa, and palm oil should not be paying New Zealand to feed its own children milk. The infrastructure to change that story is not out of reach. It is a pipeline decision, a capital decision, and a political will decision — and the countries that make those decisions in the next decade will define who captures the $4 billion that Africa currently exports to foreign dairy processors every single year.

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*Africa Brew Brief | RIC Brands — RIC Brands' intelligence platform tracking African agribusiness, coffee trade, and origin stories. Follow the brief: https://share.google/vnz8ZqMf6ujiKPr4j |